Share article

Print article

Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has triggered a blazing row by telling the Telegraph that MPs want him to mount a leadership challenge against prime minister Keir Starmer.

Starmer's poll ratings are dire and for some weeks, discussion within some sections of the Labour Party has turned to who is his most likely successor.

Up until early September, the assumption was that it would be Angela Rayner. But her resignation as deputy prime minister and deputy leader of the party over a financial scandal has made that less certain. Attention therefore turned to Burnham.

Burnham is popular within the party - and has been for a long time. A poll of party members conducted by Survation back in June for the website LabourList placed him just above Rayner as the top choice to be the next leader. He is also seen as plain-spoken and direct - a quality that Nigel Farage also has but which Starmer lacks.

However, he does face several hurdles if he does wish to become the leader of the labour party one day, whether through Starmer's resignation or some other turn of events.

The first challenge is that you must be a Labour MP to stand for the leadership of the party - and Burnham is not an MP. For Burnham to become an MP before the next general election (expected in 2029), there will need to be a vacancy (ideally in his home region, Manchester) and currently there isn't one. There have been suggestions that a sitting MP in Manchester could stand down triggering a by-election that Burnham could stand in, although none of those MPs currently seem keen.

Burnham would also then need to be shortlisted as a candidate for the seat, which will require approval from the national executive committee (NEC). Starmer currently has a majority on that committee. Given that Burnham is a former MP and the mayor of Greater Manchester, it would be odd if the NEC were to block him, but in theory it is possible. He would then need to win the shortlisting vote in the constituency Labour party where he stood. Again, I would imagine if he was standing in a Manchester seat, that the local party would approve him, but it is a further hurdle nonetheless.

The next hurdle is the need to win the by-election. While Manchester is a Labour stronghold and remains so, given the support for Reform UK in the polls, victory is not guaranteed. Parties can pour resources into by-elections as there is only one vote taking place (as opposed to 650 taking place on the same day in general elections) so activists can be bussed in and campaign finance is not so thin on the ground. You can guarantee that Reform UK will throw the kitchen sink at any by-election where they have a chance of victory, regardless of whether Burnham is standing or not.

If he clears all these hurdles, a further one remains. Currently to challenge Starmer for the leadership of the party, any challenger would need the backing of 80 MPs. This is a high threshold, as we have seen during the deputy leadership election and again there is no guarantee that enough MPs would back him. There has been some backlash to his criticism of Starmer and the party, particularly as the labour party annual conference approaches. Starmer's allies (and investors) have also been quick to point out that his suggestion to borrow more to fund increased public spending would trigger a similar run on the pound that we saw during Liz Truss' time as prime minister.

It is for these reasons that a challenge to Starmer from Burnham is unlikely at least in the short term. However, if Labour's poll ratings do not improve over the course of the next 12 months, discussion of succession will only ramp up further.

Any challenge to Starmer's leadership in the short term will likely come from within the parliamentary Labour party. The next key moment of danger will be after the 2026 local elections (in England) and devolved parliamentary elections (in Scotland and Wales). However, we should note that Labour is not as regicidal as the Conservative party. It has far less of a history of toppling even unpopular leaders.

Labour MPs should also remember the public's reaction to the Conservative party going through three leaders in the last parliament - it did play a part in their defeat last year.

Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.